Is Ferrari’s Mexico GP potential actual? Insights from qualifying and race simulations
After only one free observe session—like Lando Norris, Lewis Hamilton, and George Russell—Max Verstappen was the quickest driver on Friday, driving the Pink Bull. The Mexican Grand Prix weekend takes place at over 2,200 meters above sea degree, however the strain is intense: the Dutchman can not afford errors, whereas the McLaren duo should deal with two completely different rivals in addition to themselves. As highlighted earlier than the weekend, execution will likely be key, and the small gaps seen in FP2 verify that. The second session additionally provided two distinct footage relying on gas load: on the only lap, nobody got here near Verstappen’s tempo, notably within the central sector, the place high-speed load and stability are examined. In distinction, within the race simulations on the finish of the session, Norris’ tempo on gentle tires was untouchable, even in comparison with Oscar Piastri, who confirmed difficulties harking back to his earlier weak factors. Friday left the impression that the battle between Max Verstappen and the McLarens may nonetheless embrace Ferrari or Mercedes, with monitor evolution possible enjoying a serious position in qualifying.
McLaren inconsistent between qualifying and race tempo? Piastri continues to wrestle
The ultimate standings didn’t favor the McLaren drivers: Norris completed fourth, whereas Oscar Piastri ended solely in thirteenth. Is the MCL39 struggling on a single lap? Telemetry reveals that the distinction between Max Verstappen and Lando Norris in sector one is minimal, attributable primarily to the RB21’s higher straight-line effectivity. In sector two, Verstappen makes the distinction exiting flip six, partly as a result of a small mistake by Norris. Within the second half of the Englishman’s greatest lap, additional errors seem—notably by means of the esses and stadium part—additionally affected by tire life, as his C5 tires had already accomplished a flying lap. Extracting McLaren’s full potential in these situations is troublesome, however the automobile had the tempo to problem Pink Bull. “It’s only a matter of automobile stability; it’s a bit unstable. It’s the identical because the previous weeks; proper now we solely have points on the only lap,” Norris stated. In the present day’s qualifying will likely be determined by every driver’s skill to maximise their automobile. The MCL39’s efficiency within the central sector, a difficult high-altitude part, may make the distinction.
Race simulations highlighted McLaren’s superiority, however different components shouldn’t be discounted. Nobody matched Norris’ long-run tempo on the gentle tires; the closest was Piastri, six-tenths behind on the identical compound. The Australian struggled all through the session in sector two, notably within the advanced Snake part. Overusing the tires to restrict losses there reduces competitiveness in sector three, affecting each single-lap tempo—which Oscar Piastri described as “modest”—and laps with heavy gas hundreds. Different groups primarily used the medium compound for race simulations, and with restricted monitor grip, this may increasingly have been vital: Mercedes and Ferrari (Russell and Leclerc) have been roughly six-tenths behind McLaren, barely forward of Pink Bull. “On the medium tire, the long term was not distinctive, and that’s our primary challenge. Clearly, this worries us for the race. The stability wasn’t absent, only a lack of grip,” Max Verstappen commented.
As Pink Bull’s Head of Racing, Gianpiero Lambiase, defined, “Monitor temperatures just under 50 levels are making life very troublesome, each for cooling the PU and brakes, and for tire efficiency. The present problem is discovering the appropriate stability between inside and floor tire temperatures. We’re not but happy with tire degradation or thermal administration.” In hotter races this 12 months, McLaren has proven how improved cooling and tire administration can present a bonus. Friday’s FP2 in Mexico confirmed this benefit, although different components, comparable to monitor place, will likely be essential within the race.
Ferrari: SF-25 sturdy on single lap however potential to be confirmed
In FP2, simply 0.15 seconds separated Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc, a niche primarily in sector two, the place the Monegasque misplaced 127 thousandths to the #1. Telemetry exhibits the deficit stems from the primary a part of the sector, particularly flip six: regardless of Charles Leclerc short-shifting to enhance rotation, the RB21 gained almost a tenth on exit. In the identical part, Lewis Hamilton approached Verstappen’s reference with out utilizing second gear, a possible technique to restrict losses. Within the gradual first-sector chicane, Max Verstappen was sooner, displaying Pink Bull’s enhancements but in addition SF-25 limitations, although Ferrari’s increased high velocity on the adjoining straights remained aggressive. The SF-25 carried out effectively within the Snake and sector three, the place Charles Leclerc set the very best time. Hamilton misplaced a tenth to his teammate regardless of a constructive tow in sector one and might want to handle tires fastidiously all through the lap.
Lengthy runs noticed barely completely different approaches: Charles Leclerc pushed instantly on the tires, paying the worth in later laps with elevated LiCo and site visitors, whereas Hamilton adopted Antonelli all through his stint, leading to much less aggressive occasions. General, Ferrari confirmed good tempo, stronger on single laps than in race simulations, the place changes stay needed. The important thing will likely be confirming the potential to stick with the main group and compete for podiums: telemetry exhibits no vital PU benefit in comparison with different groups, and Friday’s qualifying simulation velocity was not as a result of aggressive setups. Pink Bull has traditionally made main enhancements from Friday to Saturday, which will likely be important to problem McLaren. In any other case, Ferrari, alongside Mercedes, may stay in rivalry and battle for a podium.





